2016 Election Charts


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Here I present my most shareable charts of 2016 voter turnout for dissemination on social media outlets. Please download and share. The purpose is to show the unused political power and its potential impact on the 2020 election and beyond. Voter turnout has been in decline for decades and it is particularly low for people under 50. This is ironic since people under 50 have a longer period of time that they will enjoy or endure the consequences of voting or not voting.

I am the author of this chart. I stand behind the figures represented by the chart, which are publicly available online through official government sites and NGOs. I will also provide the supporting sources below so that you can check my work.

A few items are not included, and if I have time I will broaden the dataset to include them in the next version. First, as many as 4%-5% of provisional ballots are rejected because of some problem or another. This is potentially millions of votes. It’s been studied and there are some findings, but I don’t have a full picture of that to share. Others have asked for demographic breakdowns to be overlaid onto this chart, and that may happen in a future version. I’m trying to keep it as simple and honest as possible this time, with the hopes that people see this and realize that they can make a big difference.

index description population percent source URL
A total population of 50 states and DC 323,405,935 100.00% US Census 2016 https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2017/state/totals/nst-est2017-01.xlsx
B under 18 73,089,741 22.60% 22.6% of total per US Census 2017, 2016 assumed similar https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/AGE295217#viewtop
C noncitizens 22,638,415 7.00% Kaiser Family Foundation citing US Census 2016 https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/distribution-by-citizenship-status/?dataView=0&currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D
D noncitizens under 18 5,116,282 1.58% Assuming similar age distribution in citizen and noncitizen populations formula
E over 18 but not a citizen 17,522,134 5.42% subtract D from C formula
F eligible voter (estimated) 232,794,060 71.98% subtract B and E from A formula
G eligible voters (per US Elections Project) 230,585,915 71.30% US Elections Project http://www.electproject.org/2016g
H ineligible felons 3,249,802 1.00% US Elections Project http://www.electproject.org/2016g
I total votes cast for POTUS in 2016 136,669,237 42.26% Federal Election Commission https://transition.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/2016presgeresults.pdf
J Trump (GOP) 62,984,825 19.48% Federal Election Commission https://transition.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/2016presgeresults.pdf
K Clinton (DNC) 65,853,516 20.36% Federal Election Commission https://transition.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/2016presgeresults.pdf
L Trump or Clinton (mainstream candidate) 128,838,341 39.84% add K and J formula
M fringe candidate 7,830,896 2.42% subtract L from I formula
N eligible votes not cast 93,916,678 29.04% subtract I from G formula
O disenfranchised 6,104,584 1.89% estimated 6.5% of non-voters based on Census 2016 survey https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/tables/p20/580/table10.xlsx
P non-voters not disenfranchised 87,812,094 27.15% subtract O from N formula
blue ridge

The Cloak of Solace

As fall arrives, and the weather again settles into my personal Goldilocks zone for outdoor activities, I am reminded of the spring just a few months ago.

I escaped to the woods several times a week throughout March and April. This is among the best of times to visit the wooded hills and valleys of Ohio and Kentucky, as their gifts are many:

The soft outer layer of clothing that we shed in the gentle warmth of the midday sun, and return to in the crepuscular chill of the day’s margins.

The brilliant colors of life: green, yellow, white, and purple, bursting forth from beneath the carpet of fallen leaves as they wrestle free from winter’s grip.

The symphony of the waters that trickle, tumble, and rush into the valleys which are swelling to receive them.

This is very much enough of a reason to seek out Nature in the places where she makes her presence most felt, but this is not the only gift I was giving myself. There was the shroud behind which I was able to pass as I explored this harmony of nature, and appreciated the understanding one gains through simple observation of it. This has always given me some measure of solace. I have never feared in the lonely dark of the wilderness, or its many fearsome beasts. My only fear has ever come from the unknowable, unpredictable, and unruly vicissitudes of human interaction. Capricious women, antagonistic men, and petulant children are the fauna of a civilized life, a life which was best left behind as frequently as possible while grappling with my frustrations in dealing with it.

Knowing that I could place, on these small journeys, the impenetrable fortress of dense thickets, rushing water, and towering cliffs between myself and the toxicity of modern life, was a source of great restorative power.

The Hook of Plenty provided numerous opportunities to bring a companion along on these little trips, but I almost always chose to travel alone. It was both sad and uplifting, freeing and desolate, empty and yet quite full.

The Cloak of Solace is difficult to share. It does not have much space for conversations about the people, places, and events in that world so deliberately left unattended. It is a meditative space. It is a refuge. It is an asylum, not for humanity but from humanity. Yet, as nurturing as it had become and as content as I had sometimes felt within it, I had also felt a desire to share that asylum with someone, as strange as it sounds. It is a conflict, of course, and one not resolved through any small measure.

As I went forward, and as I did slip further beneath the Cloak of Solace, its color and shape cascaded through a deep, soft green, and had developed into a full canopy over me which spread as far as I could see. Safe and comfortable, my grip relaxed and the cloak fell onto my shoulders, revealing that there, in the forest of chance, there was another. I felt myself drawn towards her quiet charm in the long days of summer. Time passed more quickly then, and a muted glimmer of hope grew in the place that had, in spring, seemed only big enough for one. We grew closer. We learned more. We visited rivers and mountains and cities together. Still cautious I suppose, and yet still persisting, we continue into the still darkness of uncertainty. The Cloak dangles behind me, and its verdant calico now yields to orange and yellow and red beneath a sky that is every day less troubled with light. As the colors fade, and the cooling drapery of summer is broken from its heights to become the warming carpet of autumn, a feeling of curious and careful enthusiasm beckons me to its tender light, offering, but not promising, to illuminate the dark of winter’s cold cradle. For someone whose spirit has been tempered in a few painful failures over the past years, that’s a pretty good feeling.

I want to point out that I met this person just living my normal life, and not through a service or an app or a website. Indeed it happened so soon after I had rejected that endless chase, plagued by the Hook of Plenty and the narrow keyhole of judgement through which we look without ever seeing, that I will admonish once more the hamster wheel of online dating as well as its perennial and fair-weather participants as the fruitless exercise in mutually assured frustration that I consider them to be.

We were just two people engaged in an activity that we both genuinely enjoy, and I believe it is the persistence of those very real and long-established shared interests and sensibilities that provide, several months later now, what seems like a foundation that can support a meaningful and mutually-enriching relationship, should we choose to do the work of building one.

If I seem reticent, it’s only the past talking. I’ve gone too fast and crashed a few times, so I’m just trying to be mindful of the throttle in hopes that I can avoid overusing the brakes, bumpers, or airbags. Steady as she goes this time, as I have almost certainly tried everything else.

A Statesman or a Traitsman?

Senator Portman:

I had never voted for a Republican before 2016, but with the escalating partisanship in Washington and in all facets of political conversation in the public sphere, it seems increasingly important to support someone who has a steady approach to governance and who can work across the aisle to find common ground for the good of the United States. Your record is one of bipartisan cooperation, showing up to work, following through on legislation, and taking seriously the job that Ohio has elected you to do. I was glad to support your bid for re-election this past November.

Thank you for your continued efforts against human trafficking; it is horrifying what we have seen here in Cincinnati and what is happening to the people whose bodies are being bought and sold. I live in an area where I see this often, and any help the Senate can give to our City Council’s efforts is both needed and appreciated I’m sure.

Thank you also for speaking out against Russian aggression in Ukraine; it’s very important right now to contain Moscow’s ambitions with words today, and if necessary, with actions tomorrow. Also thanks for speaking out against the executive order to restrict travel into the US, and in support of the judges who struck that order down. It gives me some confidence that the checks and balances in our system of government are working as intended. My great grandparents fled to the US from Ukraine during the Russian Civil War so both of these issues are important to me, particularly when taken in concert.

Today I’m a professional civil engineer in Ohio, and a product of immigrants. Also the product of primary and secondary education in public schools and a post-secondary education in a public university here in Ohio. So this is why I’m concerned that a Senator so sensible can support Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. She has demonstrated a serious lack of understanding on matters of educational metrics and of the role of government in education. With no experience, influence purchased at the trough of pay-to-play politics, and with extreme views very much outside the mainstream, this is a gamble against the futures of America’s youth that we cannot afford to take. I urge you to please join the brave Republican senators from Maine and Alaska in opposing DeVos’s confirmation.

And please continue to work on bringing Congress together. It is a high mountain to climb, and the loudest voices on both sides of the aisle are often the least reasonable. America is headed down a very dark path if our leaders lose their moral compass and put campaigning over country, and spite over sensibility.

Thank you,

-JM